Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
