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China has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.