Gauff’s Second Serve Remains the Sole Obstacle Between Her and Long-Term Achievement
Throughout an intense contest with her compatriot Jessica Pegula, for a moment it seemed that Coco Gauff found her rhythm. Following a tough opening set at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, Gauff fought hard and slowly shifted the contest in her favor. She reached set point while serving at 6-5 in the second set.
Then, Gauff unleashed three disastrous service errors in a row, enabling Pegula to reclaim the break of serve without touching a single ball. Not one of those attempts came remotely close.
This episode perfectly illustrated the challenges Gauff faces at the end of a curious year. On one hand, her career is progressing exceptionally strong. Gauff captured her second major title at the French Open this past June, defeating top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka in a victory that demonstrated her first major win was no fluke. Many assumed logical to think this achievement would fuel more success.
Instead, except for winning the title in Wuhan recently, the past several months have been among the difficult she has faced. These struggles can be attributed to one shot: Gauff’s second serve.
While Gauff has long been susceptible to serving errors, in recent years her service game has fallen apart. Per Tennis Abstract, Gauff’s rate of double faults, the proportion of serves resulting in a double fault, is by far the highest among all elite competitors this year at 9.9%. The next highest rate among the top 10 belongs to Amanda Anisimova, who has a double fault rate at 6.2%. In a sport, where contests are decided by fine lines, Gauff freely hands over a tenth of her serves.
On the court, Gauff possesses numerous strengths. Her defense and agility are unmatched, her two-handed backhand stroke is excellent, and her smarts during matches pair well with her well-rounded game. Although her forehand shot may be erratic, all evidence points to the quality of her second service will likely dictate how high she can go in her career. She tops the tour in breaking serve, winning 46.8% of her return games this year, and she has claimed a respectable 68.6% of first serve points, ranking 12th in the top 50.
Her problems begin with that second service. Gauff is sixth lowest player in the top 50 for second serve points won currently. Excluding serving errors, however, she leads in the second highest proportion on second serves in tennis. Should she reduce her service errors, her outcomes will improve significantly.
After a painful streak service displays by Gauff this summer, including 23 errors against Danielle Collins in Montreal, she finally took drastic action. Days before the US Open, Gauff split from her coach Matt Daly in favor of hiring movement specialist Gavin MacMillan. Right away, they made major adjustments to her awkward serving motion, particularly her knee flexion and her habit to throw her head, in her attempts to generate speed on her racket that frequently results in her finishing off balance.
A top player undertaking such a major coaching change days before a major tournament is almost unprecedented and it made for a tough tournament at the US Open. Following tears during play in her round two win over Donna Vekic and facing put under pressure, Gauff lost in round four against Naomi Osaka.
The decision to wait until after the US Open for making such major changes, however, also revealed much about her attitude. Gauff is ranked No 3 and she has played at the highest level in the sport for five years. It’s often hard to focus on development while a competitor faces expectations to win nearly every match. Yet, she remains only 21 years old, and she should continue focusing on her development as a player. She clearly gets this.
In spite of the loss to Pegula, Gauff still has the opportunity to progress from the group stages at the Finals, as the the defending champion. But, how her game evolves going forward is far more important. A clear point of reference is Sabalenka, whose serve was a disaster three years ago.
On numerous occasions back in 2022, struggling with her second service, Sabalenka resorted to using underarm second serves. This year, her error rate at 3.1% is the third lowest among the top players. It will take a while for Coco to determine whether her efforts with her new coach will produce permanent gains, but, should they prove just half as effective as the top player in the world, there will be numerous major wins ahead.