What Does the Palestinian Agreement Affect Benjamin Netanyahu's Political Future?
In a defiant speech given only an hour following the truce began in Gaza, Israel's prime minister repeated his pledge to compel Hamas to surrender weapons.
During his broadcast speech, the prime minister stated he had resisted intense domestic and international pressure to accomplish his main objective of guaranteeing "the safety of Israel," while at the same time lambasting his detractors and reiterating a threat to resume warfare if necessary.
"The militant group accepted the agreement only when it felt the threat resting on its neck and it remains on its neck ... Hamas must surrender arms and Gaza will be free of weapons ... If this is achieved the peaceful way, so much the better. Otherwise, it must be accomplished the hard way," Netanyahu stated.
Key Elements of the Agreement
The deal signed Thursday morning and implemented on Friday results in Hamas freeing 20 living hostages during three days, the withdrawal of military units from certain areas of Gaza, and freedom for approximately two thousand Palestinian prisoners incarcerated in Israeli jails. Further phases remain undefined.
Electoral Consequences for Netanyahu
Political analysts described the speech as "campaign rhetoric."
"He is always running for office. During each address it is: 'I ordered this', 'I ordered that'. It's always me, me, me ... This is what he does best," commented Yossi Mekelberg.
Netanyahu's popularity failed to rebound significantly since the 7 October 2023 surprise Hamas raid that initiated the war. The assault caused twelve hundred fatalities, mostly civilians, with an additional 250 taken hostage.
Political Timeline
Elections in Israel are scheduled within about a year, but most observers expect them within six months. The latest poll, published on Friday, indicated widespread approval for the ceasefire and hostage release among the Israeli public had increased Netanyahu's party by only two seats, and that the current coalition would still face defeat by a wide margin.
Future Challenges
The coming weeks will present further challenges for Netanyahu, who has held power in Israel for nearly two decades cumulatively. He faces legal allegations that could lead to a prohibition on government positions or potentially jail, and will also encounter renewed demands for a full judicial inquiry into the security lapses that allowed for Hamas's 2023 raid.
Every truce in Gaza is likely to be fragile, and executing more complex parts of the peace plan will be extremely difficult.
Political Survival
The key for Netanyahu will be to persuade the Israeli electorate that he continues to be "Mr Security" despite the most severe security failure in the nation's existence happening on his watch. External support from important partners is expected to help his standing.
"The prime minister represents the central story of this war ... Currently, Israel stands in the strongest security position in its existence: there is no Syrian threat, Hezbollah has suffered a significant setback, and similarly Iran and Hamas. His probable argument will be: we fell asleep, but we rose in complete strength – and we overcame every adversary," stated a political consultant.
Broader Political Context
Notwithstanding the consequences of the war in Gaza, global diplomatic pressure and internal political fractures, the broader political landscape may continue to benefit Netanyahu. Any opposition remains fragmented.
"Israelis appear lacking much of an appetite for conciliatory approaches at the moment," commented a journalist. "While perhaps appearing logical, the fundamental issue in Israeli politics is remains the same as it has been for a long time: support Netanyahu, or oppose Netanyahu?"