World Cup Qualification Scenarios: When, Methods and Which Teams Needs What?

Group A

Might the unimaginable occur? Germany have not once missed out for the global tournament but the four-time champions must avoid mistakes if they are to seal top spot after falling against the Slovak team in their opening game. Julian Nagelsmann’s side lead Slovakia on goal difference and need to defeat Luxembourg on the weekend and observe whether the Northern Irish – assured a qualifying round after finishing first of their international league group – can do them any favours in Slovakia on the concurrent evening. Germany conclude against Slovakia in Leipzig on Monday in what could be a winner-takes-all encounter. Sides ending runner-up enter the playoffs.

Group B

The Swiss team will qualify on Saturday if they obtain a better result at home to the Swedish side than the Kosovan team achieve in the Slovenian venue. The Swiss vastly superior goal difference ensures they will be virtually assured of a tournament spot if they match Kosovo’s performance. But if Kosovo close the three-point gap to the leaders, things will be thrillingly balanced for their final game at home to Switzerland in Pristina on Tuesday. Sweden, coached by Graham Potter for the first time, are expected to make the playoffs by merit of having won their international league group.

Section C

With the Greek team and the Belarusian side out of contention, it is a direct battle between Denmark and Scotland for direct entry. Steve Clarke’s side enter the last pair of games behind on net goals so will in all likelihood need at least a draw in Athens on Saturday to have a chance of seizing first place when they meet Denmark at Hampden Park on 18 November.

Group D

Les Bleus have a playoff secured thanks of the international competition and will qualify in first position if they defeat Ukraine in Paris on Thursday. Even a draw would leave France set fair going into their last match in Azerbaijan considering they are ahead of Ukraine by a trio of points and have a goal ratio better by several. An Iceland win in Baku on Thursday combined with a France win over Ukraine would elevate Iceland into second on net goals before they meet Ukraine on Sunday in Warsaw. Azerbaijan’s minimal chances of sneaking into a playoff require wins over Iceland and France and boosting their negative goal difference.

Group E

La Roja, having won their initial quartet of games, are on the brink of securing a spot. If they get a superior outcome in Georgia on Saturday than Turkey secure at home to Bulgaria they will ensure first place, and equaling Turkey’s performance would all but confirm qualification given their net goals is better than Turkey’s by 12. Turkey need a draw – or a setback by Georgia – to secure a qualification round. They finish on Tuesday in Seville against Spain, who beat them 6-0 in September.

Section F

An stoppage-time equaliser by Hungary’s Dominik Szoboszlai in Lisbon last month has made Portugal delay their celebration to book their place. Two points from games in the the Irish team on Thursday and at home to Armenia on Sunday would guarantee top spot. The Hungarian squad, who are second, one point ahead of Ireland, would secure a playoff on Thursday if they win in Armenia and Ireland are defeated to Portugal. Otherwise the qualification place may come down to Hungary’s game against Ireland in Budapest on Sunday.

Section G

Poland’s aspirations of overtaking the Dutch side, who lead them by several points with a vastly superior goal difference, depend on defeating Ronald Koeman’s side in Warsaw on Friday and hoping eliminated the Lithuanian team can do them a favour in Amsterdam on Monday. The Netherlands drew at home to Poland in September but have otherwise secured most games easily. Finland, who meet Malta in their last match on Friday, have an outside chance of making the playoffs if Poland are defeated to the Netherlands and Malta.

Group H

A trio of sides are in the running to end top, although Austria know a win over the Cypriot side on Saturday combined with runner-up Bosnia and Herzegovina suffering defeat or tying at home to third-position the Romanian side would secure qualification. Bosnia, a couple of points behind Austria with a net goals worse by several, journey to Vienna on Tuesday. Romania, who need a pair of victories to have a opportunity of first place, host San Marino that day. There is the intriguing possibility that San Marino, the world's bottom-ranked team, could secure a playoff spot after winning their international league group, if Romania finish as runners-up – a scenario that could rely on how many goals they score in their final match.

Section I

the Norwegian team are ahead of Italy by several points and no one else can end in the first two positions. A win for Norway at home to the Estonian team on Thursday would effectively guarantee their place before they travel to San Siro on Sunday because the astonishing 29 goals scored by their star striker and co from half a dozen games have given the team a truly ridiculous goal difference of positive twenty-six, sixteen ahead of Italy. Gennaro Gattuso’s side need maximum points from their games, which begin in the Moldovan venue on Thursday, and a Norway mistake against Estonia to evade the playoff for which they appear fated as they attempt to qualify for a first World Cup since 2014.

Group J

Belgium need one win from two games to be sure of automatic qualification and encounter a possibly difficult fixture in the Kazakh venue on Saturday. If they fail to achieve it there, Rudi Garcia’s side should wrap up first place against Liechtenstein on Tuesday. the Welsh side and the Macedonian team have mathematical hope of overhauling Belgium but are realistically playing for the runner-up spot. The Welsh national team are guaranteed of a qualification round due to the Nations League but must end as second place to prevent being among the lower-ranked teams and having an road match. Winning in Liechtenstein on Saturday and at home to North Macedonia on Tuesday would ensure second for Wales. If Wales beat Liechtenstein by a large margin a tie with North Macedonia, whose only remaining game is in Cardiff, would be enough.

Group K

the English team last month became the initial UEFA team to secure qualification for the World Cup and the English squad will have a big say in the battle for the runner-up spot. the Serbian team trail Albania by a single point and almost certainly need a positive result at Wembley on Thursday because defeat coupled with an Albania win in the Andorran venue would terminate their playoff hopes. Albania, who have never qualified for the global event but have reached the European Championship on two occasions, in 2016 and 2024, meet England in Tirana in their last game as Serbia entertain the Latvian team.

Section L

Croatia, last four participants at the previous two tournaments, need a draw at home to the the Faroese side on Friday or in the Montenegrin venue on Monday to secure their spot in the finals again. They can be overtaken only by the Czech Republic, who are three points behind with a single match left, at home to Gibraltar on Monday, but a goal difference inferior by fifteen. The Faroese squad, shock victors against the Czech Republic last month, will end in second in the unlikely event that they obtain a better result against Croatia than the Czech Republic achieve against Gibraltar.

Qualification Rounds

At the selection on 20 November the dozen second-place teams will be joined by the four best-ranked Nations League

Tammie Figueroa
Tammie Figueroa

Lena is a tech journalist with over a decade of experience covering emerging technologies and consumer electronics.